Professional services firm PwC has cautioned that although Ghana’s macroeconomic conditions improved significantly in the first half of 2026, the recovery remains fragile and could come under pressure if fiscal discipline and economic reforms are not sustained.
In its review of the 2026 Mid-Year Budget presented by Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson, PwC acknowledged notable improvements in key economic indicators, including economic growth, inflation, fiscal balances, foreign exchange reserves and debt conditions.
However, the firm warned that the positive developments should not be interpreted as evidence that Ghana’s economic challenges have been permanently resolved.
According to PwC, the key issue now is whether the gains recorded in the first half of the year are structural and sustainable enough to support long-term investment and business confidence.
“The Minister for Finance is right to argue that macroeconomic conditions in the first half (H1) of 2026 were significantly better than a year earlier,” the firm said.
“But the more important question for everybody, including business leaders, is whether the improvement is structural, durable and investable.”
PwC attributed some of the improvement to stronger fiscal management and progress made through the country’s debt restructuring programme. It also noted that favourable base effects, delayed government expenditure, lower domestic interest rates and improved foreign reserves had contributed to the stronger economic performance.
The firm, however, cautioned that some of these factors may not continue to support the economy at the same level during the second half of 2026.
It expects pressure to increase as the government accelerates capital expenditure, while rising global oil prices and geopolitical uncertainties could create additional inflationary risks.
PwC said the government’s key economic targets for the year remain achievable, particularly its real GDP growth and primary surplus projections, provided the authorities maintain tight fiscal discipline.
The firm was less confident about the inflation outlook, warning that recent increases in inflation, coupled with higher international oil prices and geopolitical tensions, could push inflation towards the upper end of the government’s target range by the end of 2026.
The warning comes as businesses and investors assess whether Ghana’s improved economic conditions can translate into a stable environment for long-term investment.
“For business leaders and investors, our message is straightforward: Ghana’s macro picture is much improved, but this is not yet a no-risk operating environment,” PwC said.
The firm expects the second half of the year to be characterised by moderate inflationary pressures, increased government spending and continued uncertainty in the external environment. It also believes there may be less scope for further reductions in interest rates than financial markets had previously anticipated.
Fiscal outlook
PwC described the government’s fiscal strategy as broadly credible, noting that the Mid-Year Budget Review maintained the original revenue and expenditure targets without introducing a supplementary budget or significantly relaxing fiscal policy.
However, the firm said Ghana still needs to address several structural weaknesses before fiscal sustainability can be considered fully restored.
It identified stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, better governance of state-owned enterprises and the resolution of persistent liabilities in the energy sector as key priorities.
“Fiscal sustainability is improving, but it is not conclusively repaired,” PwC said.
The firm noted that Ghana’s improved fiscal position remains partly supported by debt restructuring and lower interest costs, rather than being driven entirely by permanent improvements in the country’s underlying fiscal fundamentals.
PwC also urged caution in interpreting the government’s stronger fiscal performance during the first six months of the year.
It argued that some of the fiscal outperformance may have resulted from delays in government spending rather than fundamental improvements in expenditure management.
“Part of the fiscal strength reflects opportune timing rather than permanent efficiency,” the report said.
The firm expects some of the savings recorded during the first half of the year to narrow as government spending increases on major programmes and capital projects in the months ahead.
Advice to businesses and investors
Despite its warnings, PwC said Ghana’s improved macroeconomic environment presents better opportunities for businesses than in recent years.
Lower interest rates, improved investor confidence and greater exchange-rate stability could create a more favourable environment for investment and business expansion.
PwC, however, advised companies to adopt what it described as “disciplined optimism” by taking advantage of the improving economic conditions while remaining prepared for renewed volatility.
It urged businesses to continue managing foreign exchange exposure, protect profit margins and plan for a potentially more challenging second half of 2026.
Overall, PwC’s assessment suggests that Ghana has made substantial progress in stabilising its economy, but the recovery remains a work in progress. The durability of the gains, the firm said, will ultimately depend on the government’s ability to maintain fiscal discipline, deepen structural reforms and strengthen the foundations of long-term economic growth.
