Inflation across emerging market and developing economies, including Ghana, is expected to rise in 2026, largely driven by higher global energy prices and ongoing supply disruptions, according to the latest Commodity Markets Outlook by the World Bank.
The report projects that consumer price inflation in these economies will climb to approximately 5.1 per cent in 2026, reversing earlier expectations of a gradual decline in price pressures this year.
According to the World Bank, the anticipated increase is primarily linked to recent shocks in global energy markets, as well as geopolitical tensions that continue to disrupt supply chains and raise production costs across multiple sectors.
The report highlights that rising fuel prices and higher costs of essential commodities are likely to feed into the prices of a wide range of consumer goods. This could place additional strain on household budgets, particularly in developing economies where incomes are already under pressure.
It also warns that inflation could worsen further if disruptions in global energy markets persist. Under a high-risk scenario—where oil prices surge due to prolonged geopolitical instability—inflation in emerging markets could rise to between 5.3 and 5.8 percent in 2026, marking one of the highest levels recorded in the past decade.
Beyond household impacts, the report notes that elevated energy costs could slow real income growth, weaken consumer demand, and increase operational expenses for businesses. This combination may dampen overall economic activity in many emerging economies.
In response to rising inflation, central banks in developing countries are expected to maintain tighter monetary policies. While this may help contain price increases, it could also lead to higher borrowing costs and reduced investment.
The outlook underscores the continued vulnerability of emerging markets to global commodity price shocks—particularly for countries that depend heavily on energy imports—highlighting the need for policies that strengthen economic resilience against external shocks.
By: Janice Opoku-Agyemang
