According to new data released by IC Research, the inflation forecasts for Ghana indicate a modest increase in April 2026. The firm’s latest analysis of March 2026 inflation shows that domestic fuel prices are driving the expected uptick. Petrol prices have increased by 10.9 percent within the first pricing window of April, while diesel has surged by 32.1 percent year-to-date.
IC Research attributes the sharp rise largely to escalating global energy prices triggered by tensions in the Middle East, as well as a 4.9 percent depreciation of the Ghana cedi so far this year.
Despite these developments, the inflation forecasts for Ghana on a year-on-year basis remain relatively stable. Petrol prices are still down by 11.3 percent, while diesel has recorded a 10.9 percent increase.
The firm projects that annual inflation will rise slightly to 3.4 percent in April 2026, with month-on-month inflation expected to hit 1.0 percent.
According to IC Research, Ghana’s current inflation trajectory reflects a continued return to price stability. Headline inflation edged down by 10 basis points to 3.2 percent in March 2026, marking the 15th consecutive month of disinflation.
At 3.2 percent, inflation remains significantly below the target range set by the Bank of Ghana. It stands 280 basis points below the minimum target, 480 basis points below the midpoint, and 680 basis points below the upper ceiling.
IC Research notes that this buffer provides resilience against external shocks, even as rising energy prices pose potential risks.
Looking ahead, the firm cautions that further escalation in global conflicts could increase price pressures. However, it expects inflation to remain within single digits throughout 2026, supported by the sustained impact of the reduced VAT regime.
