The Ghana Cedi value forecast has been revised by Fitch Solutions, with the currency now expected to end 2025 at GH₵13.00 to the US dollar. This marks a significant improvement from its earlier projection of GH₵15.50, reflecting recent cedi strength in the foreign exchange market.
According to the UK-based research firm, the revision follows a 16% to 30% appreciation of the cedi between late April and May 2025. This performance is attributed mainly to rising global gold prices, which have boosted Ghana’s export earnings and supported the currency.
Fitch forecasts the cedi to appreciate again by 12.9% in 2025, compared to the projected end-2024 rate of GH₵14.70 to the dollar. The updated Ghana Cedi value forecast suggests increased currency stability, benefiting both inflation control and monetary policy planning.
Cedi Strength Expected to Ease Inflation and Spur Monetary Policy Shift
Fitch Solutions indicates that a stronger cedi will help lower inflationary pressures throughout 2025. This trend is expected to provide the Bank of Ghana (BoG) with room to ease its tight monetary policy stance.
Ghana, as a net importer of essentials such as fuel, cereals, pharmaceuticals, and plastics, is set to benefit from reduced import costs. The firmer currency will likely have a disinflationary impact on these goods, reinforcing positive consumer effects.
Despite raising the policy rate by 100 basis points to 28.00% in March 2025, the BoG may soon adopt a different path. The Ghana Cedi value forecast by Fitch anticipates a 200 basis points cut in the second half of 2025. This would reduce the policy rate to 26.00% by year-end, creating more favorable borrowing conditions.
Inflation Trends Improve as Cedi Outlook Strengthens
Headline inflation began to decline after a difficult start to the year. By April 2025, year-on-year inflation dropped to 21.5%, from 23.5% in January. Fitch forecasts an average inflation rate of 18.0% for 2025, with year-end inflation expected to reach 13.1%.
This level approaches the pre-pandemic average of 12.4%, recorded between 2015 and 2019. With the Ghana Cedi value forecast showing continued strength, inflation could fall further, boosting household purchasing power and consumer demand in the second half of the year.
Fitch believes the combination of disinflation, currency appreciation, and interest rate cuts will create a more supportive economic environment for growth.
BoG Emphasizes Market-Based Policy Over Targeted Exchange Rates
Bank of Ghana Governor Dr. Johnson Asiama has clarified the central bank’s position on exchange rate management. He rejected claims that the BoG is pursuing a specific exchange rate level.
Speaking after the latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting, Dr. Asiama affirmed that policy actions are not based on arbitrary rate targets. Instead, the BoG’s approach focuses on mitigating excessive exchange rate volatility.
“We don’t have such a plan on the table that says when the cedi reaches a certain point, we must move to ease the appreciation,” he stated.
The Ghana Cedi value forecast remains subject to global and domestic market dynamics, with the central bank emphasizing a flexible, market-oriented stance in its exchange rate strategy.
